Adoption Signals

Five layers of adoption. Two dimensions per layer. Is the power law’s engine still running?

All clear. Four of five layers accelerating. Jan–Feb ETF outflows reversed in March; April posted the strongest month of 2026. No early warning indicators triggered.
May 2026

Early Warning Indicators

Clear
ETF Outflows
Threshold: 6+ consecutive months net outflows
Current: 0 of 6. Jan–Feb dip (2 mo) reset by March (+$1.3B) and April (+$2.4B).
Clear
Treasury Decline
Threshold: Net decrease in entity count over 12 months
Current: Net adds every quarter since 2020. 187 entities.
Clear
Regulatory Reversal
Threshold: More countries banning than enabling per year
Current: 46 legal vs 10 banned (Vietnam added Jan ’26). Direction: enabling.
−2.3%
On-chain 0.1+ BTC addresses (YoY)
migrating
+$58.5B
Cumulative spot ETF net inflows since Jan ’24
The one mixed signal, explained.

On-chain addresses holding 0.1+ BTC are declining while ETF inflows surge. This is not abandonment—it is migration. Holders are moving from self-custody to regulated financial products. The capital stays in Bitcoin; only the custody layer changes. When L1 dips but L4 surges, the funnel is working exactly as expected.

Five Layers

Weight: how much has been committed. Distribution: how spread out and resilient.

1
Individual Accumulation
Mixed Monthly
Weight
Addr ≥ 1 BTC~980K stable
Addr ≥ 0.1 BTC4.47M −2.3%
Addr ≥ 0.01 BTC12.75M +4%
Addr ≥ 0.001 BTC~24.8M growing
Addr ≥ 0.0001 BTC~38.8M rising fast
2016Addr ≥ 0.012026
Distribution
Global holders106M–500M growing
Retail expansionSub-0.001 tier accelerating
Whale concentrationDeclining healthier
ETF migrationActive L1→L4
Source: BitInfoCharts / Glassnode / BM Pro
2
Network Infrastructure
Strong Live
Weight
Hash rate900+ EH/s +35%
Est. energy~18 GW growing
Reachable nodes~17,000 stable
2016Hash rate2026
Distribution
Mining countries (>1%)12+ post-ban
Top-3 share~55% was 75%
Node countries50+ stable
Source: blockchain.info / bitnodes.io
3
Corporate Treasury
Strong Quarterly
Weight
BTC held1.85M 8.81% supply
Entities187 +40% YoY
2016Entity count2026
Distribution
Top-3 share~60% concentrated
SectorsTech / finance / mining broad
GeographiesUS / JP / EU / APAC growing
Source: CoinGecko / BitcoinTreasuries
4
Financial Products
Strong Daily
Weight
Spot ETF AUM (US)~$102B +$2.4B Apr
Cumulative inflows$58.5B since Jan ’24
2016ETF AUM2026
Distribution
US issuers11 stable
IBIT share~55% dominant
Global marketsUS / CA / EU / HK / AU 5+
Source: CoinGlass / Newhedge
5
Sovereign & Regulatory
Strong Quarterly
Weight
Legal46 countries + Vietnam Jan ’26
Partial ban20 stable
Banned10 not growing
2018Countries: legal2026
Distribution
Legal tender2 (ES, CAR) stable
G20 legal12 of 20 57%+ GDP
FrameworksMiCA / GENIUS new
Source: Atlantic Council

Not financial advice. L1–L2 metrics update on page load. L3–L5 curated quarterly. Sources linked per metric.