Bitcoin adoption follows a power law whose volatility is decreasing, revealing a rising floor you can build your financial life on.
This is the research behind that claim. Seventeen papers. 5,700+ daily data points. Every conclusion earned by the data before it. Every claim falsifiable.
Where does today sit in 5,800+ days of Bitcoin?
Every daily close since 2010 lands on one rung of this ladder, based on a single question: how expensive was Bitcoin that day, measured as price ÷ power-law trend? Long bars are where Bitcoin lives. Short bars are where it rarely goes. The orange-ringed rung is where it is right now.
Dollar ranges are today’s — they climb every day as the trend grows. Deep dives: If This Bear Rhymes · Trend Value Distribution.
Bitcoin's price follows a power law. 15 years of daily data. R² above 0.95. The observed signature of network adoption spanning six orders of magnitude. Not a prediction. An observation.
The distribution compresses every halving cycle. Five metrics, all significant. The ceiling collapses 2.2x faster than the floor rises. The wild swings are structurally dying.
When the noise dies, what remains is the floor. Dipped below on about 2.4% of days, recovered above every time. Rising every day. The mathematical signature of cumulative adoption. The attractor the entire distribution converges onto.
When stack times floor growth exceeds expenses, ruin probability approaches zero. All remaining volatility is upside. Risk has an expiration date. Build your financial life on the floor.
15 years of daily closes. Price has closed below the floor on about 2.4% of days (135 of 5,713 closes) and recovered above it every time. The dashed line shows where it's going.
Everything you need to reproduce, challenge, or build on the Bitcoin power law. Download the data, use the formula, check the residuals, or hand the whole thing to an LLM. Every claim is falsifiable — here are the tools.
{"date":"2010-07-19","price":0.09},
...
{"date":"2026-03-16","price":84105}]
The floor isn’t a promise that price never dips below it — it’s a measured attractor, and we track every excursion. In 15+ years, Bitcoin has closed below the 0.432× floor on — days (— of history) across — excursions; the deepest lasted — days. None has ever reached the falsification threshold — ~120 consecutive days below the floor — which is what would actually break the model. Breached often. Never broken.
- 2026-08-17 Page If This Bear Rhymes — every bear aligned at its high: the analog paths, the empirical outcome fan from today’s shelf, and a live matrix of what each trend multiple is worth out to 12 months
- 2026-08-17 Tool Ladder confidence mode — flip the all-time view to cumulative occupancy: share of days at or above each rung, all-time vs this cycle, showing the floor’s confidence hardening while the high rungs empty
- 2026-08-17 Tool Ladder seasonality view — median return per calendar month with hit rates and worst years, filterable to months that started cheap (<0.75× trend), current month marked live
- 2026-08-13 Tool Ladder cycle comparison — view any halving cycle’s ladder or compare two side by side (share of cycle days, medians, deltas), with a “same day in cycle” alignment for fair comparisons against the running cycle
- 2026-08-12 Tool The Ladder — live homepage histogram: every daily close since 2010 sorted onto valuation rungs (price ÷ trend), with today's rung highlighted; the dataset now backfills to full daily resolution
- 2026-07-03 Site Honest floor framing — site-wide, "floor never breached" replaced with the measured fact: price has closed below the floor on ~2.4% of days (135 of 5,713 daily closes), always recovering above
- 2026-05-21 Paper "The Floor Held" v1.1 — 200-week MA vs power law floor: 4 publication-quality charts
- 2026-05-21 Analysis Five Ways to Find the Floor — 200WMA, trend extrapolation, and three other convergence methods
- 2026-05-18 Paper P13: The Bitcoin Mortgage v3.3 — dual-collateral lending against structural floor growth
- 2026-05-12 Site Adoption Signals — dashboard refreshed with May 2026 data; Layer 1 expanded to 5-tier address comparison
- 2026-05-07 Tool Bitcoin Block Clock — real-time cinematic block counter, UTC-primary
- 2026-05-05 Paper P16: Passive vs Active Retirement Under Power-Law Growth
- 2026-04-12 Paper P15: Bitcoin Sustainable Withdrawal Rate — plain-English SWR chart and full PDF
The "risky" asset is the one where you can mathematically prove the risk has an expiration date.