Bitcoin adoption follows a power law whose volatility is decreasing, revealing a rising floor you can build your financial life on.
This is the research behind that claim. Twelve papers. 5,700+ daily data points. Every conclusion earned by the data before it. Every claim falsifiable.
Bitcoin's price follows a power law. 15 years of daily data. R² above 0.95. The observed signature of network adoption spanning six orders of magnitude. Not a prediction. An observation.
The distribution compresses every halving cycle. Five metrics, all significant. The ceiling collapses 2.2x faster than the floor rises. The wild swings are structurally dying.
When the noise dies, what remains is the floor. Never breached. Rising every day. The mathematical signature of cumulative adoption. The attractor the entire distribution converges onto.
When stack times floor growth exceeds expenses, ruin probability approaches zero. All remaining volatility is upside. Risk has an expiration date. Build your financial life on the floor.
15 years of daily closes. The floor has never been breached. The dashed line shows where it's going.
Everything you need to reproduce, challenge, or build on the Bitcoin power law. Download the data, use the formula, check the residuals, or hand the whole thing to an LLM. Every claim is falsifiable — here are the tools.
{"date":"2010-07-19","price":0.09},
...
{"date":"2026-03-16","price":84105}]
The floor has been breached. It has never broken. Scan every day in Bitcoin’s history — see each excursion, how long it lasted, and how the model re-anchored. The falsification threshold grows as the model accumulates evidence: today it takes ~120 consecutive days below 0.432× trend to qualify as a structural breakdown. That has never happened.
The "risky" asset is the one where you can mathematically prove the risk has an expiration date.