Bitcoin Observatory Changelog

2026-10-27 Site The floor is a statistical lower boundary, not a guarantee: the planners now use the 0.432× floor like the rest of the site, the “Bulletproof” retirement tier is renamed “Floor-covered”, and copy that called the floor a worst case, a structural safety net or a reason to never touch principal now describes it as an expectation, not a promise.

2026-10-27 Site Observatory Pro: the Wealth Playbook as a welcome gift, a monthly look back and forward, alerts for 20% moves in a week next to the zone alerts, and what Pro is worth for a 0.1 to 1 BTC stack.

2026-10-26 Site Observatory Pro waitlist: zone alerts with each zone’s track record, a weekly brief and members-only research are coming. The founding list is open on the home page and on /pro/.

2026-10-26 Site One below-floor figure everywhere: the research pages, thesis, methodology, planners and llms.txt now quote the 0.432× floor count (5.2% of daily closes, 309 days) instead of the old 2.4% / 135 days. Observatory pages count it from the dataset at build time.

2026-10-25 Site New home page: the live floor and a log-log chart where the floor is one straight line, the shrinking cycles as multiples of the floor, and a direct path to the Retire planner. The Ladder, the Starter Pack and this changelog moved to their own pages.

2026-10-24 Site One floor, one set of numbers: the home chart now draws the 0.432× floor, and every below-floor figure on the home page is counted from the dataset at build time (5.2% of days, not the 2.4% measured against the older −2σ line)

2026-08-17 Page If This Bear Rhymes — every bear aligned at its high: the analog paths, the empirical outcome fan from today’s shelf, and a live matrix of what each trend multiple is worth out to 12 months

2026-08-17 Tool Ladder confidence mode — flip the all-time view to cumulative occupancy: share of days at or above each rung, all-time vs this cycle, showing the floor’s confidence hardening while the high rungs empty

2026-08-17 Tool Ladder seasonality view — median return per calendar month with hit rates and worst years, filterable to months that started cheap (<0.75× trend), current month marked live

2026-08-13 Tool Ladder cycle comparison — view any halving cycle’s ladder or compare two side by side (share of cycle days, medians, deltas), with a “same day in cycle” alignment for fair comparisons against the running cycle

2026-08-12 Tool The Ladder — live homepage histogram: every daily close since 2010 sorted onto valuation rungs (price ÷ trend), with today's rung highlighted; the dataset now backfills to full daily resolution

2026-07-03 Site Honest floor framing — site-wide, "floor never breached" replaced with the measured fact: price has closed below the floor on ~2.4% of days (135 of 5,713 daily closes), always recovering above

2026-05-21 Paper "The Floor Held" v1.1 — 200-week MA vs power law floor: 4 publication-quality charts

2026-05-21 Analysis Five Ways to Find the Floor — 200WMA, trend extrapolation, and three other convergence methods

2026-05-18 Paper P13: The Bitcoin Mortgage v3.3 — dual-collateral lending against structural floor growth

2026-05-12 Site Adoption Signals — dashboard refreshed with May 2026 data; Layer 1 expanded to 5-tier address comparison

2026-05-07 Tool Bitcoin Block Clock — real-time cinematic block counter, UTC-primary

2026-05-05 Paper P16: Passive vs Active Retirement Under Power-Law Growth

2026-04-12 Paper P15: Bitcoin Sustainable Withdrawal Rate — plain-English SWR chart and full PDF

What changed on the Bitcoin Observatory