Observatory Pro · Founding members
Know the day Bitcoin changes zone. Without checking a single chart.
Pro watches every daily close against the power-law trend. You get an email when price crosses into a new zone or moves 20% in a week, a monthly look back and forward, and the Wealth Playbook the day you join.
Last close: 0.51× trend, the Value.
Preorder a plan
Your card is saved now and is not charged until launch. The founding price is $19 for the first month or $152 for the first year. After that bill, the plan renews at $29 a month or $232 a year.
Choose monthly or yearlyObservatory dataset, January 2015 to October 2026, closes with a full year of data after them. A visit starts the first day price closes within 20% of the floor after being at least 35% above it. The floor is 0.42× trend, a planning worst case, not a guarantee. Past results, not a promise.
The problem
Same coin, same plan, opposite results. The only difference was when.
Start a lump sum in the floor zone and it beat twelve monthly buys every single time since 2015. Start the same lump sum in the hot zone and it lost three times out of four.
Borrow against your bitcoin for a year in the value zone and, historically, it was cheaper than selling every time, with no liquidations at 50% LTV. Take the same loan in the hot zone and 81% of those loans were liquidated.
The zones that matter most come in bear markets, when the news is worst. Price closed below the floor once this year, on July 1, 2026, and was back above it the next day. Did you see it?
You can watch the chart every day for years. Or you can let it watch itself.
The six zones
Every zone has a track record. Pro sends it to you.
Each line is one the research already uses: the floor (0.42× trend, a planning worst case, not a guarantee), 1.2× the floor, the 1.6× floor rule, trend, and the 1.25× lump-sum crossover. Daily closes since January 2015.
| Zone | Price / trend | Share of days | Higher 1 yr later | Lump sum beat 12 monthly buys | Borrowing 1 yr beat selling | Loans liquidated at 50% LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below the floor | under 0.42× | 2% | 100% | 100% +68% BTC | 100% 57% less BTC | 0% |
| Floor zone | 0.42–0.50× | 12% | 100% | 100% +55% BTC | 100% 61% less BTC | 0% |
| Value | 0.50–0.67× | 26% | 100% | 100% +32% BTC | 100% 51% less BTC | 0% |
| Below trend | 0.67–1.0× | 25% | 87% | 83% +29% BTC | 74% | 19% |
| Above trend | 1.0–1.25× | 12% | 51% | 47% −2% BTC | 28% | 56% |
| Hot | over 1.25× | 23% | 31% | 25% −22% BTC | 13% | 81% |
Lump sum: one buy on the day against 12 equal buys 30 days apart, compared in bitcoin bought; the small figure is the median difference. Borrowing: take a loan at 10% APR instead of selling bitcoin for the same cash, repay it a year later by selling bitcoin; the small figure is the median bitcoin saved when it beat selling. A loan counts as liquidated if its LTV reached 80% at any close during the year. Daily closes overlap, so one visit to a zone counts many times, and the trend line is fitted on all data through 2026. Check the data and the formula yourself.
What lands in your inbox
Two emails Pro would have sent this year
Real numbers from those days. Alerts come only when price crosses a line or makes a big move, not every day it sits in a zone.
Zone change: Bitcoin closed below the floor
- Close, Jul 1
- $58,566
- Floor
- $59,589
- Price / trend
- 0.41×
This is dip number 23 below the floor since 2010. Of the 22 before it, 18 were over within a week and the longest lasted 86 days.
This zone’s record since 2015
- A year later, price was higher every time. Median: 2.6×.
- Historically a favorable time for a lump sum: it beat 12 monthly buys every time, by a median of 68% more bitcoin.
- Historically a favorable time to borrow instead of sell: a 10% loan repaid a year later cost 57% less bitcoin than selling, with no liquidations at 50% LTV.
Educational, not financial advice. What you do with it is yours.
What happened next: price closed back above the floor on July 2, the next day. It did not close below the floor again through the latest close in this dataset.
Look back and forward: October 2026
September, looking back
- Close, Sep 30
- $83,640
- Month
- +7.7%
- Range
- $75.6k–$86.6k
Price ran between 0.50× and 0.57× trend. It dipped into the floor zone on Sep 16, Sep 17 and Sep 18 and ended the month in the value zone at 0.54×. The floor rose from $63,010 to $64,581.
October, looking forward
- The floor rises from $64,638 to $66,359.
- The floor-zone line (1.2× the floor) rises from $77,566 to $79,630. Price opened October at $83,576, about 8% above it.
- Trend rises from $153,900 to $157,997. The hot zone starts at $192,375.
Educational, not financial advice. What you do with it is yours.
What happened next: on October 23 the close ($81,328) was about 3% above the floor-zone line ($79,075). It did not cross a zone line that day.
Your first gift
The Wealth Playbook, in your inbox the day you join
The rules our research tested, worked out for your stack. Use it the same day, before the first alert.
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Your stack, zone by zone
Pick 0.1, 0.25, 0.5 or 1 BTC. For each zone: what a lump sum, monthly buying and a loan instead of a sale did to a stack that size, in bitcoin.
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The playbook the research tested
Borrow for living costs below 1.6× the floor and repay at trend. Floor leverage below 0.5× trend. Sell in tiers from 1.5× trend up. What each rule did in 12.4 million simulated paths, and where it stops working.
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The zone price map
The dollar price of every zone line, month by month for the next 12 months. The lines rise every day, so you see where “floor zone” or “hot” will be before price gets there.
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Your rules worksheet
A one-page template to write your plan per zone: what you buy, borrow or leave alone in each one. Fill it in once and Pro reminds you when a rule’s zone is reached.
Everything in Pro
Seven things, so you never have to check the chart again
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Zone alerts
An email the day price crosses into a new zone, up or down. Each one carries that zone’s record: a year later, lump sum against monthly buys, borrowing against selling, liquidation rates. 105 since 2015, about nine a year.
Replaces: checking a chart 365 days a year for the few weeks that count.
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Big-move alerts
An email when price moves 20% or more within a week, up or down, with where the move leaves price against the floor and the trend. 55 since 2015, about four or five a year; the latest were −24.4% on Feb 5 and +24.5% on Aug 22, 2026.
Replaces: hearing about it from the news, after the move.
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Your own rules
Write your plan down once: “double my monthly buy in the value zone”, “no new loans above trend”. Pro reminds you the day a rule’s zone is reached. You decide in calm markets and act on time in loud ones.
Replaces: deciding in the moment, when everyone around you is panicking or euphoric.
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The Monthly Look Back and Forward
Every month: last month’s close, change, range and zone, and the month ahead in dollars: where the floor, every zone line and trend will be on the first and the last day.
Replaces: scrolling for opinions, and working out where the lines are yourself.
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Members-only research
New papers and datasets a month before they go public, plus deep dives that never do. Same standard as the 20 papers already on this site: the method, the data, and the limits.
Replaces: trusting claims you can’t check.
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Founding bonusThe Alert Archive
All 160 alerts Pro would have sent since 2015: 105 zone changes and 55 big moves, each with what came a year later where a year has passed. Read a full bear market and a full bull market the way Pro would have reported them.
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Founding bonusThe 2028 Halving Briefing
Where the floor and trend will be on halving day in April 2028, and which zone price was in around each of the last four halvings.
What it’s worth for your stack
One decision can cover years of Pro. How many depends on your stack.
One example from the record: you need cash worth 10% of your stack while price is in the floor zone. Since 2015, a 10% loan repaid a year later used a median 61% less bitcoin than selling, with no liquidations at 50% LTV.
The first year is 1.9% of it.
Borrowing instead of selling kept a median 0.006 BTC ($493).
Covers 3 years at the first-year price
The first year is 0.75% of it.
Borrowing instead of selling kept a median 0.015 BTC ($1,232).
Covers 8 years at the first-year price
The first year is 0.38% of it.
Borrowing instead of selling kept a median 0.03 BTC ($2,465).
Covers 16 years at the first-year price
The first year is 0.19% of it.
Borrowing instead of selling kept a median 0.061 BTC ($4,929).
Covers 32 years at the first-year price
New money works the same at any stack size. In the floor zone a lump sum bought a median 55% more bitcoin than 12 monthly buys, so about $276 of new money placed there covers the first year. The hot zone runs the other way: a lump sum got a median 22% less bitcoin, and 81% of loans at 50% LTV were liquidated.
Holding 0.1 BTC and adding nothing? Then the first year is 1.9% of your stack, and Pro pays only when you add money or need cash. Price spent time in or below the floor zone in 10 of the last 16 years.
Stack values at the last close, $80,811 on Oct 25. The first year is $152. Later years are $232. Medians from daily closes since January 2015 with a full year after them, on the trend fitted to all data. Past results, not a promise.
The founding member deal
The founding discount applies to the first bill
- Founding discount, once. $10 off the first month, or $80 off the first year. The next bill is $29 a month or $232 a year.
- Card saved, charged at launch. Checkout asks for a card and does not charge it. The charge happens when Pro launches, on the plan you chose.
- Pay in sats, 20% off, is separate. This card preorder does not apply it. On the first year that sats price would be $122.
- The Wealth Playbook, the day you join. Your stack zone by zone, the playbook rules the research tested, the zone price map and your rules worksheet.
- Cancel the preorder by email at info@alexandermooij.com and the card is not charged. After launch the subscription renews until you cancel it.
- Both founding bonuses. The Alert Archive and the 2028 Halving Briefing, for the first 250 preorders.
Founding spots are the first 250 saved cards.
For scale: in the floor zone, one $10,000 lump sum bought a median 55% more bitcoin than the same $10,000 spread over 12 months. The first year costs $152.
Straight talk
Pro is not for you if…
- You want trading signals. Pro looks at daily closes against a 16-year line. Nothing faster, no leverage calls.
- You want to be told what to buy. Pro shows you which zone price is in and what history showed there. What you do with it is yours. It is education, not financial advice.
- You want a promise. Price has closed below the floor on 223 days, and 19% of loans at 50% LTV started in the below-trend zone were liquidated. The zones are a measured history, not a guarantee.
Questions
Before you join
What do I get on day one?
The Wealth Playbook, by email the day you join: your stack zone by zone, the playbook rules our research tested, the dollar price of every zone line for the next 12 months, and a worksheet for your own rules. Founding members also get the Alert Archive and the 2028 Halving Briefing.
How many emails will I get?
One look back and forward a month. Zone alerts fire when price crosses into a new zone, and a line stays quiet until price has moved 5% away from it. Big-move alerts fire on a 20% move within a week, at most once per direction in 30 days. Together that averaged about 13 alerts a year since 2015: 7 in the quietest year, 24 in the busiest.
Is Pro worth it for a small stack?
It depends on what you do, not only on what you hold. At 0.1 BTC the first year is about 1.9% of the stack, so it pays when you add money or need cash: about $276 of new money placed in the floor zone covers that first year. Later years are the standard price. The section above shows the numbers for 0.1 to 1 BTC.
Is this investment advice?
No. Pro is educational: which zone price is in, what the data shows about that zone, and what the published research found. It describes what happened historically and never tells you what to buy, sell or borrow.
What will it cost?
Preorder now. Your card is not charged until launch. The first month is $19 ($10 off), then $29 a month. The first year is $152 ($80 off), then $232 a year. The yearly standard price is 4 months free against paying monthly. The founding discount applies to the first bill only. The first 250 saved cards get it.
Can I cancel?
Before launch, email info@alexandermooij.com and the card is not charged. After launch the subscription renews at the standard price until you cancel it. The founding discount does not continue past the first bill.
Will the free site stay free?
Yes. Floor Watch, the calculators and every published paper stay free. Pro is the alerts, the monthly look back and forward, and the research that comes next.
What happens to my email?
We store it with the plan you chose and the Stripe customer id, so the saved card can be charged at launch. The card number stays with Stripe. The address is not sold. Ask to be removed any time at info@alexandermooij.com and, before launch, the card is not charged.
The floor doesn’t send an invitation. Pro does.
Preorder the first year at $152, then $232 a year. Your card is not charged until launch.
Same preorder as above
The founding price is the first month or the first year only. Tick the 14-day withdrawal box on the form before checkout.
Go to the preorder form