Reading the gauge…
Loading the historical distribution of Bitcoin's price around its power law trend.
Your cushion above the floor — in time
The floor never falls; it only grows. The most honest measure of risk isn't the dollar gap to the floor — it's how much floor growth stands between today's price and the floor. Below is how far the power law floor has to climb, in time, before it reaches today's price.
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The historical distribution
Every weekly close since 2014, stripped of the trend and sorted by how far it sat above or below the power law. The trend is 1×; the floor is 0.432×. Notice how the mass sits above trend — and how rarely price has visited the deep-value zone where it lives today.
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Derive it yourself — from the lows alone
Don't take the model's word for it. Take just one number per year — the lowest price Bitcoin ever traded at — and plot it against time on a log-log chart. Sixteen data points, six orders of magnitude, one straight line. A straight line on log-log axes is a power law, and its slope is the exponent. No curve fitting to bull markets, no cherry-picking tops: the floor of each year is enough to recover the whole model.
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How to read this: the gauge measures position, not timing. A large time cushion means the floor is far below today's price and would take years of growth to reach it — historically a higher-risk region. A small or negative cushion means price has fallen close to (or through) the floor — historically the rare, high-value region Bitcoin has always recovered from. This is not financial advice; the power law is a historical model, not a guarantee.