Future Projections
If the power law continues to hold, here's what the models suggest for Bitcoin's long-term trend. Remember: these are trend values, not price predictions.
Important: These projections represent the power law trend line only. Actual prices oscillate around the trend, often dramatically. This is not financial advice or a price guarantee. Focus on the long-term adoption math, not short-term speculation.
Explore Future Dates
Key Milestones
Trend Projections
| Date | Trend Price | Notes |
|---|
Path to $1 Million
The $1 million milestone is a focal point for many Bitcoin enthusiasts. The table below shows when the trend line — and each sigma band — reaches key price levels. In bull cycles, price can touch the upper bands years earlier than the trend.
| Target Price | +2σ | +1σ | Trend | -1σ | -2σ |
|---|
Time Travel
Bitcoin is 17 years old. What does the power law predict if it ages 50% more? What if the age doubles? Drag the slider — or hit Play — to watch the trend and corridor extend into the future.
Why does this matter?
Power laws have an unusual property: the older the network, the faster the trend grows in absolute dollars. Every additional year of age adds more to the trend price than the last. Doubling Bitcoin's age doesn't double the trend — it multiplies it by 2β (roughly 52× for the Santostasi model with β=5.688). That's the compounding engine behind Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. The ±σ corridor shows the historically normal range price has oscillated within — it widens in dollar terms over time, but stays statistically tight on a log scale.
Important Caveats
- Power law models are empirical fits to historical data, not fundamental laws
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- The model could break down due to regulatory changes, technological disruption, or other unforeseen events
- Actual prices will likely oscillate significantly above and below the trend
- These projections assume continued network adoption following historical patterns